For the first time in forever, multiple blockbusters are actually contenders for the Best Picture Oscar. But first, they must be candidates.
Dark comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age drama “The Fabelmans” scored big at the Golden Globes, while sci-fi hit “Everything Everywhere All at Once” led the Screen Actors Guild along with “Banshees.” ” However, when the field for the 95th Academy Awards (airing March 12 on ABC) is announced, the “Top Gun” and “Black Panther” sequels are emerging as heavyweight contenders that could bring extra spice to an awards season which is somewhat back to normal after a few pandemic-plagued years.
Watch out, Oscar! We hope these 10 brilliant performances feel the love at the Academy Awards
Could ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Soar In Oscar Nominations? Don’t count it
While everything may seem to fall into place for potential candidates, it usually does just when chaos is just around the corner. Let’s separate the potential contenders from the nominees in the six major Oscar categories:
- Blockbusters will fight for top spots in the best picture field.
- It’s a two-man race for Best Actress and a talented trio for Best Actor.
- Co-stars Angela Bassett and Ke Huy Quan are the easiest bets of all.
Better picture
The best: Producers and directors usually know what’s going on before the rest of us – the vast majority of nominees make it to the Academy Awards. So expect the shoo-ins to be “Fabelmans,” “Banshees,” “Everything Everywhere,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Tár,” all of which were scored by the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America. “Elvis,” with Globe, PGA and British Academy nominations under its belt, also has a good shot, as does “Babylon,” which boasts Globe and Screen Actors Guild honors.
The rest: High-profile PGA contenders “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” look more poised to take the bottom three spots than the polarizing “The Whale,” though no No love for Brendan Fraser. Other possibilities include popular Indian action epic “RRR,” BAFTA-nominated “All Quiet on the Western Front” and SAG-nominated “Women Talking” — they could all be in the running if “Babylon” (with its mixed reviews) or “Top Gun” falters.
Best actor
The best: This looks to be a three-way match between Golden Globe winners Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Colin Farrell (“Banshees”) as well as “Whale” star Fraser, who scored additional season awards with his heartfelt speech of after winning the Critics. Choice Award. It’s safe to say these guys are locks, especially with Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: In the last two Oscar cycles, the SAG and Best Actor Oscar teams have matched each other exactly, which is a boon for SAG nominees Bill Nighy (“Living”) – who also earned a BAFTA nod – and Adam Sandler (“Hustle “). Sandler doesn’t have an Oscar nomination yet, so the Academy could see this as a career highlight. But if they don’t, they’re waiting in the wings to earn a spot, like BAFTA nominee Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) as well as two Globe nominees, Diego Calva (“Babylon”) and Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection” ). Then there’s Tom Cruise, the face of “Top Gun” who probably has some voters rooting for him.
Best actress
The best: Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere”) cruised through awards season with Globe wins and SAG nominations, and this inevitable showdown is happening at the Oscars because, barring some mishap in the multiverse, they’re in it.
The rest: The other three points are less distinct. Oscar winner Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) has put together a nice resume, with SAGs, Globes and BAFTAs, while SAG nominees Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) and Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) are also in the mix . Michelle Williams – who arguably would have done better this season as a supporting cast – has a shot thanks to “Fabelmans” momentum. Also on the outside looking in are Globe nominees Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) and Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”).
Best Supporting Actor
The best: No one in Hollywood is as beloved as “Everything Everywhere” star/Globe winner/SAG nominee Ke Huy Quan these days because of his comeback story and general Cinderella mojo. At least one actor usually runs the table every year, and Quan is the top bet in this Oscar category. Likely to pick up three more spots: “Banshees” duo Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan and “The Good Nurse” antagonist Eddie Redmayne, who each garnered SAG, Globe and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: For the last remaining spot — or maybe two, given that “Good Nurse” isn’t exactly a major awards player — SAG nominee Paul Dano is vying for “Fabelmans.” Co-star Judd Hirsch is also a possibility: The longtime Emmy-winning actor has been nominated for an Oscar just once, for 1980’s “Ordinary People.” Also in the running are Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”), who as well as Critics Choice nominee Hirsch, and BAFTA nominee Micheal Ward (“Empire of Light”).
Best Supporting Actress
The best:Angela Bassett rules Wakanda and, so far, the lead in this category, which seems to be the field of acting most in flux. The “Black Panther” star won gold at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, as well as SAG and BAFTA nominations. Kerry Condon (“Banshees”) and Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere”) — still looking for her first Oscar nod after decades in the business — are also safe bets, with each SAG, Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA.
The rest: What’s left is pretty much a free-for-all with a bunch of talented contenders. Curtis’ co-star Stephanie Hsu earned a SAG nom for her lead role. Hong Chow (“The Whale”) impressed the SAG and BAFTA teams, while Dolly de Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”) and Carey Mulligan (“She Said”) have Globe and BAFTA nominations to their credit. And don’t overlook Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion”) or Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), both Critics’ Choice nominees in famous ensembles.
Best director
The best: Each year, a staggering four out of five DGA candidates enter the category. In other words, things are looking pretty bad for Globe champ Spielberg, Critics Choice-winning duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Martin McDonagh (“Banshees”) and Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”).
The rest: So who’s the weird one? Probably Kosinski, since his Best Picture nominee is the only one without any major awards to date. Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) could take his place and avoid an all-male field after two consecutive wins by female directors. James Cameron has a shot at the footballer thanks to the success of the ‘Avatar’ sequel at the box office. Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) or SS Rajamouli (“RRR”) could ride the wave of popularity for their films. But perhaps a surprise dark horse emerges from the BAFTA slate, which includes Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave”), Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King “).
Read more about this year’s Oscar nominees
Classification:All Steven Spielberg movies (including ‘The Fabelmans’)
‘The whale’:Brendan Fraser wants to change “hearts and minds” for people living with obesity
The Banshees of Inisherin Review:Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson bring friendly fire to the dark comedy
Ke Huy Quan:‘Indiana Jones’ star waited ‘more than 30 years’ for ‘Everything Everywhere’ role
