Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Before we get to the props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I wanted to write about.
Josh Allen recorded the most passing yards on Thanksgiving with +240 and Gabe Davis led the receiving field with +1,300.
I have Davis closer to +900 to lead the receiving charts on Turkey Day. You could argue that it should be less since he’s had a wider range of results than most players.
Davis doesn’t need the size of other receivers to win this bet given his big play ability. There’s a scenario where he leads with something like 125 receiving yards in the final game of the night. If so, you can hedge your bets by betting on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards. If Jefferson is below 88.5, it’s unlikely anyone else will score above 125. If he goes 89-124, you win both bets.
Betting on Allen is on par with Davis. I’d say a fair price on Allen is closer to +200.
There’s no such thing, so here are my favorite props for the three Thanksgiving games.
Singletary had a season-high 18 catches last week against the Browns. It was the third time in 10 games that he had accomplished the feat.
Singletary benefited when Josh Allen recorded season-lows in rushing (197) and passing (seven) yards against Cleveland. I think we’ll see him come back with a big enough game through the air and on the ground that eats into Singletary’s workload.
We also have second-round rookie James Cook posting his best game of the season, shooting 86 on 11 carries. Singles dominates in passing and 2-minute work, but the Bills could continue to use Cook on early downs to keep the veteran fresh.
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Another thing that works against Singletary in this market is that he doesn’t make many attempts at three, four or short. The Bills have Gabe Davis lined up behind Allen as a QB forward and a great quarterback.
There is also a slippery railing on this pillar. If the Lions can make it close, the Bills will be turned into a tough game script.
If the Bills get a huge advantage, they tend to bubble Singletary and dominate the Cook job. Buffalo may also eventually want Nyheim Hines to get some reps on offense. His rush attempts will only help this prop.
I plan to keep the Singletary close to 12.5 and think it will drop to -140.
I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than with a Lawrence Cage prop sweating over dinner (on the East Coast).
The Giants are likely to be forced into a pass-heavy game script as 10-point underdogs, so I think this prop offers some stealth value.
Daniel Jones lost his top target, Van’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the new receiver, but it’s unclear who will emerge as the No. 2 pick.
Cage will remain the Giants’ leading pass rusher until rookie Daniel Bellinger returns. Cager targeted 70% of Jones last week and I expect to see similar usage with Robinson.
The Cowboys had the most pressure in the NFL this season. Jones targets tight ends 14% of the time in clean pockets, but that jumps to 19% when faced with pressure.
Cager is a former wide receiver converted to tight end. He is 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds. He is not there to close. He also had the second-most receiving yards among preseason games.
I plan to put the Cager closer to 19.5 yards.
Cousins has faced pressure this season. His per attempt drops from 7.1 to 5.4 with clean pockets. With Dallas leading the league in rushing, it was no surprise that Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys.
Cousins will face another tough challenge against a Patriots defense that ranks second in pass rush. To make matters worse, left tackle Christian Darrisau is no longer available.
As a result, I expect Minnesota to have a more conservative and tough matchup against New England.
The Patriots offense may also struggle to score, which helps reduce the chances of Cousins getting into a game script that sees the Vikings pass heavily and play from behind.
I put it close to 238.5 yards.