College football picks, schedule: Predictions against the spread, odds for top 25 games in Week 11

There are three weeks left in the 2022 college football regular season, which means division races are heating up, conference championship pictures are becoming clearer and the number of teams legitimately in the College Football Playoff is shrinking every Saturday. That will be the case again in Week 11, with multiple top-25 matchups to highlight those scenarios.

The most notable matchups come from the SEC, where No. 7 LSU hopes to not take a step back from its overtime win over Alabama when it visits Arkansas. The Tigers have suddenly become the talk of the town during their first season under coach Brian Kelly, but their grip on the SEC West is slim. LSU needs a win to clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game (likely against No. 1 Georgia), and that starts with avoiding going on the road against an Arkansas team that can play anyone.

Barring an absolute miracle, when it comes to the No. 9 Crimson Tide, their SEC and CFP hopes are dashed. Not so for No. 11 Ole Miss, which hosts Alabama on CBS’ Game of the Week with Rebels coach Lane Kiffin looking for its first win against Nick Saban. Unlike the Tide, the Rebels still have a chance to win the SEC West. Ole Miss will have to beat Alabama to earn a spot, but LSU will need to get by the end of the regular season.

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Saturday night is a Big 12 game with freshman No. 4 TCU visiting No. 18 Texas State for its toughest challenge remaining in three weeks. The Longhorns are playing much better in the second half of the season, and they will surely decide what TCU brings to the table with former Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson as an analyst. If the Frogs can get past the Horns, only Baylor and Iowa State are left for TCU to make the playoffs.

Be sure to stay with CBS Sports throughout the day for college football coverage starting with the opening game. Let’s take a look at our experts’ picks for the best games of Week 11.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | East at all times

Missouri #5 Tennessee

Featured game | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigers

At noon | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports appAside from a 40-12 loss to Kansas State in Week 2, Missouri’s defense was solid. Even in this game, the Tigers allowed just 336 total yards, resulting in a 4-1 turnover margin. Missouri’s last seven games have ended within that spread, and the Tigers should be able to be respectable again here. Missouri ranks 100th in the nation in turnover margin, but that should turn around at some point. If the Tigers keep their turnover woes under control, the game will be close. Prediction: Missouri +21 — David Cobb

#7 LSU at Arkansas

At noon | ESPN, fuboTV (Try it for free) — An upset on the road against a talented opponent is a natural pitfall to fall into, but KJ Jefferson’s status makes the chances of an upset even slimmer. LSU has been playing inspired football since its losses to Tennessee and Florida State, and there’s little reason to expect Brian Kelly’s team not to play good, fundamental football in a crucial game with CFP hopes. Prediction: LSU -3 — Shehan Jeyarajah

No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss

Featured game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

15:30 | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports appTake Ole Miss and the score, but you won’t need it because the Rebels are winning this one outright. The multi-dimensional Rebels offense will find success early, forcing Alabama defenders into the box and Jackson Dart will get a shot up top. At the same time, Ole Miss’ defense will have enough success to pressure Alabama’s backfield. That’s bad news for an Alabama team that hasn’t been rough on the road. Prediction: Ole Miss +12 — Barrett Sally

Mississippi State No. 1 Georgia

19 hours | ESPN, fuboTV (Try it for free) — Mississippi State has not been able to overcome the spread in three straight games, but Georgia appears to be peaking in the most important part of the season. Georgia’s defense was even higher than Alabama’s, and the Crimson Tide was able to put a stop to this year’s Mississippi State offense on tape. I think the Bulldogs, based in Athens, can do the same. Prediction: Georgia -16 — Chip Patterson

No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas

Featured game | Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs

19:30 ABC, fuboTV (Try it for free) — Thanks to a close game against Alabama and a loss to a quarterback-less Oklahoma team, the Longhorns are rated well in most analytics systems. However, the Longhorns lost to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State along with close games against Iowa State. One of those teams knows how to close out games and it’s the boys in purple. Prediction: TCU +7 — Jeyarajah

Which college football picks can you confidently make in Week 11, and which top 25 teams will fall hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams are going to win and find out from a proven computer model that has made nearly $3,000 in profits over the last 6+ seasons.



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